An academic paper published by Bain and Fortenbery in 20161 showed that USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report for winter wheat is helpful in forecasting final all wheat yields in the spring months. The Crop Progress report for winter wheat is released weekly beginning about the first week of April through mid-June. Bain and Fortenbery noted, as one might expect, that the progress report becomes a more accurate predictor of final yields as the year progresses.
The sixth report for 2020 winter wheat crop progress was released on May 11. The table below shows the implied yields for both Washington wheat, and the average wheat yield forecast across the major 18 producing states (noted as U.S. yield forecast in the table below). The index was designed by Bain and Fortenbery. It ranges between 0 and 100, and takes into account the percentage of winter wheat identified in each of the 5 categories (very poor, poor, fair, good, and excellent). It differs from most other quality indices reported that typically only account for the percentage of wheat in the good to excellent categories.
Based on the May 11 crop progress results, Washington survey respondents are a bit more optimistic concerning wheat yields this year compared to the same time last year, while U.S. respondents as a whole are a bit less optimistic than a year ago. However, note that last year respondents in both Washington and the broader 18 state areas were significantly underestimating crop quality relative to the final winter wheat yields observed. The progress reports in week 6 2019 predicted Washington yields were about 4 bushels less than final yields last year, but for the total U.S. were off about 17 percent. This is an abnormally large error, so it is likely final U.S. yields this year will not deviate from the current forecast by that much. Fortenbery goes into more detail about the market forecast in the latest episode of Wheat All About It titled, Thrust and Parry — WSU Economist Randy Fortenbery Takes on Wheat and the World’s Woes 2.
1 Bain, Ryan and T. Randall Fortenbery “Impact of Crop Condition Reports on National and Local Wheat Markets,” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 31 (2016), p. 1-23.
For questions or comments, contact Randy Fortenbery via email at r.fortenbery@wsu.edu.